精彩观点：
AI派对刚过半： 如果这场AI派对从晚上9点开始，持续到凌晨4点，那么现在才10点半。空头正隔着窗户观望，而多头还在舞池中。并非泡沫的“1996时刻”： 我认为现在更像是1996年（互联网爆发前期），而非1999年（泡沫破裂前夕）。当时的初创公司靠PPT融资，而现在的AI革命是由拥有万亿资产负债表、年产数千亿现金流的大型科技公司主导的。英伟达的“乘数效应”： 在英伟达芯片上每花费1美元，就会在整个科技领域的软件、网络安全和基础设施中产生8到10美元的乘数效应。寻找“第四层衍生效应”： AI 革命的红利正在向纵深传递。第一层是芯片，但第二、三、四层衍生效应才刚刚在软件、网络安全、基础设施和电力领域显现。我认为最大的 Alpha（超额收益）就隐藏在这些衍生效应中。12:1的供需失衡： 目前英伟达芯片的供需比高达12比1，这证明了需求绝非炒作。我们正处于一个史无前例的资本支出（Capex）超级周期。2026是“变现之年”： 2026年将是AI货币化的关键时刻，也是区分赢家和输家的试金石。那些无法执行变现逻辑的公司将被淘汰。苹果开启消费AI时代： 真正的消费者AI革命将由苹果开启。依托24亿台iOS设备，苹果将成为AI触达大众的终极入口，未来甚至会出现专门的AI应用商店。中国在电力与机器人领域的优势： 相比美国，电力在中国不是问题，这在AI竞赛中是巨大的优势。而在物理AI（机器人）领域，中国的人形机器人创新曲线令人惊叹，目前处于全球领先地位。中美“交融”而非脱钩： 美国需要中国，中国也需要美国。这场AI革命的高潮必须依赖两国的“跨界交融”协作，而非对立，两国将更紧密地合作。他相信英伟达和其他公司将追随苹果和特斯拉的道路，苹果和特斯拉成功的一大关键是拥抱北京、拥抱上海、拥抱中国作为一个市场。未来五年的图景： 到2030年，20%的汽车将实现自动驾驶，每10到15个家庭就将拥有一个人形机器人。最看好阿里巴巴、腾讯、百度：中国最大的投资机会将是机器人领域，人形机器人是中国明显领先的领域，无论是上市还是非上市，都有很多优秀的公司。而他们在中国AI生态中最看好的一直是阿里巴巴、百度和腾讯。看涨科技股，涨势持续到2027年：明年将会讨论科技股再上涨25%，相信这轮上涨至少会持续到2027年。12月19日周五，Wedbush Securities董事总经理、资深科技分析师Dan Ives做客由华尔街见闻和中欧国际工商学院联合主办的「Alpha峰会」，就全球AI产业趋势、中美科技竞合以及2026年的投资机遇做出了深度前瞻。
作为华尔街最具影响力的科技股分析师之一，Dan Ives拥有超过25年的从业经验。他以对苹果（Apple）、特斯拉（Tesla）以及微软（Microsoft）等科技巨头的精准追踪而闻名，被誉为华尔街最坚定的“科技多头”。
当市场在质疑AI估值是否过高时，Dan Ives始终站在前线，用严密的底层逻辑拆解这场“第四次工业革命”。他提出的“AI派对”论和“1995时刻”论，已成为科技投资者的重要参考指南。
以下是华尔街见闻整理的精华内容：
谈AI现状：这是一场持续到凌晨4点的派对我是丹·艾夫斯，非常兴奋能参加Alpha峰会。我从90年代末就开始研究科技股，这让我拥有了一个独特的视角：我可以将今天的AI革命与当年的互联网泡沫时期进行对比。
我的结论是：这两者完全不可比。我认为我们正在目睹的是真正的“第四次工业革命”，而美国和中国正处于这场竞赛的领跑位置。
如果把AI革命比作一场派对，它从晚上9点开始，预计会持续到凌晨4点。那么现在大约才到10点半。空头们正站在窗外窥视派对，而多头们还在舞池里。虽然未来两年我们可能会遇到各种“惊险时刻”，比如关税问题、地缘政治紧张或对特定公司的担忧，但我认为科技牛市至少会持续到2027年。
现在的科技行业与1999年完全不同。那时平均科技公司的估值是营收的30倍，且很多初创公司融资仅靠一份PPT；而今天，平均估值是盈利的27倍，且主导者是资产负债表上拥有万亿现金、每年产生数千亿自由现金流的科技巨头。这不是泡沫，这是真实的应用案例在落地。
谈衍生机遇：英伟达只是序幕，第二、三、四层效应刚开始大家都在看英伟达，但在我们的研究中，在英伟达芯片上每花1美元，就会在芯片、软件、网络安全、基础设施和电力领域产生8到10美元的乘数效应。
我们现在正处于一个10年建设期的第3年。目前的焦点还在模型和基础设施上，但真正的Alpha收益将来自第二、第三乃至第四层衍生效应。这就是为什么我们推出了AI 30 ETF（代码：IVES），旨在追踪这30个最终的赢家。
目前，英伟达芯片的供需比仍维持在12:1的惊人水平。这意味着对于华为、AMD、博通以及美光、SK海力士等厂商来说，市场空间依然巨大。
此外，电力将成为下一个关键点。当20%的公司走上AI道路时，当前的电力供应将无法支撑，因此核电、小型模块化反应堆（SMR）等技术将成为中美之间新的“军备竞赛”领域。
谈中国机遇：机器人领域正引领全球关于中国，我想强调两点：
第一，电力优势。相比美国，中国在电力布局（尤其是核电）上拥有显著优势，这对于能耗巨大的AI数据中心至关重要。
第二，物理AI（机器人）。我认为中国AI生态中最具吸引力的机会在于机器人。在人形机器人领域，中国显然处于领先地位。这种创新曲线是令人瞩目的。未来的AI不仅是ChatGPT那样的对话框，它将体现在自动驾驶、出行和各种物理形态中。
尽管中美之间存在贸易紧张局势，但我认为这种局势会降温。苹果和特斯拉的成功经验已经证明了“拥抱中国市场”的重要性。美国需要中国的供应链和需求，中国也需要美国的技术，这种“跨界交融”是AI革命达到高潮的必要条件。
谈2026前瞻：从“炒作”转向“变现”很多投资者问我，华尔街的耐心还有多少？我认为2026年将是真正的“货币化之年”。
此前我们处于“1995时刻”，现在进入了“1996时刻”。2026年将成为真假AI公司的试金石。届时，投资者将不再满足于在PPT里提到30次AI，而是要看到真实的收入贡献。
消费者端的AI爆发也将在2026年进入全面阶段。苹果将开启这一进程——随着明年初苹果与谷歌Gemini的合作落地，24亿台iOS设备将变身AI终端。未来，我们将看到全新的AI应用商店，诞生出一整个面向消费者的AI技术类别。
总而言之，我们正生活在第四次工业革命中，这是一个激动人心的选股者市场。我们看好科技牛市的延续。
演讲全文如下：
一、Part One：AI革命全景与中美竞合
1、「AI派对」比喻：盛宴刚刚开始
Dan Ives 01:32
This is Dan Ives you know Im super excited
我是丹·艾夫斯 我感到超级兴奋
to be here talking to you The Alpha Summit you know
能在这里和大家交流 Alpha峰会
I wanna be there in person Hopefully next year will be in
我真的很想亲自参加 希望明年能够到场
you know and really just to spend cost 20、30 minutes
我将花上二三十分钟
talking about you know where I see things going
来聊聊我对AI革命走向的看法
in terms of the AI revolution Okay just take a step back
关于AI革命 好吧 先退一步讲
You know Ive covered tech stocks going back to the late 90s
你知道 我从90年代末就开始研究科技股
So I think my perspective is a little unique
所以我认为我的视角有点独特
because I could compare to dot com bubble and burst
因为我可以将互联网泡沫和破裂时期
where were today with the AI revolution
与今天我们所在的AI革命时期进行对比
I view it as an Apples oranges comparison
但我认为这种比较并不恰当 就像是拿苹果和橘子相比
I think this is truly a fourth industrial revolution
我认为这真是一场第四次工业革命
that we see taking hold here Globally looking essentially
我们正看到它在此扎根 从全球范围来看 本质上可以说
its really US and China that are running
真正在奔跑并赢得这场
and winning this AI revolution race
AI革命竞赛的是美国和中国
In our view We are call it you know if I think about
在我们看来 我们有个比喻 如果你把它想象成
like an AI party it start off is 9 PM
一场从晚上9点开始的AI派对
Its now about 10:30 PM In the AI party
那么现在大约才进行到晚上10点半
That party goes to 4 AM And there at the time
这场派对会持续到凌晨4点 而在那个时候
at this party this AI party therell be glass
在这场派对上 这场AI派对上 会有玻璃
in the dance for DJ will stop playing music
被打碎 DJ会停止播放音乐
Maybe cops come to the party for a little
可能警察还会来派对一小会儿
Partys going to 4 AM Now the bearers watch
派对会持续到凌晨4点 现在空头们正
this party through the windows And its 6 AM
透过窗户观看这场派对 而到了早上6点
When the bulls and the bears meet up
多头和空头才会碰面
The bulls at Parina in the bears Look it speaks
多头在派对上 空头在外面 看吧 这说明
to my view its a tech bull market next two years
我的观点 未来两年将是科技股的牛市
You know both us as well as China tech
无论是美国还是中国的科技股
it speaks to our lives AI 30 you know
这印证了我们的看法 比如AI30清单里
we have a number of China please there as well
也有好几家中国公司
And its an arms race thats playing out across the world
而且这是一场在全球范围内展开的军备竞赛
2、乘数效应：第二、三、四层衍生机遇才刚起步
Dan Ives 03:16
But the reality is that for every dollar spent
但现实是 在英伟达芯片上每花费一美元
on Nvidia chip theres an eight to ten dollar multiplier
就会在整个科技领域的其他部分
across the rest of tech It speaks to our view
产生八到十美元的乘数效应 这印证了我们的观点
that the 2nd3rd4th derivatives are just starting
即第二 第三 第四层衍生效应才刚刚开始
to play out across chips across software
在芯片 软件 网络安全
across cyber security as well as infrastructure and power
以及基础设施和电力领域显现
Dan Ives 03:37
And you know I think when you look at US and China
而且 我认为当你观察美国和中国时
theres two you know much different markets going on
会发现这是两个非常不同的市场
I think when it comes to what we see in China
我认为 就我们在中国所看到的情况而言
from all of our time you know spent youre in the region
基于我们在该地区投入的所有研究时间
3、中美对比：中国电力优势与英伟达的关键角色
Dan Ives 03:51
power is not an issue in China And I think thats something
我们发现电力在中国不是问题 我认为这将是
thats gonna be huge advantage versus US right now
目前相对于美国的一个巨大优势
especially when it comes to nuclear
尤其是在核电方面
Its a big focus terms what we see relative to
这是我们相对于美国 在电力布局方面
you know the power plays Look theres one chip
重点关注的事情 如果
in the world if you wanna AI revolution thats Nvidia
你想要推动AI革命 世界上有一款芯片不可或缺 那就是英伟达
And its why also we think its just more
这也是为什么我们认为
and more important for Nvidia to get back
英伟达重新进入中国市场
into the China market and its a big part
变得越来越重要 而且这是我们
of what we see playing out across the board
所看到的全局发展中很重要的一部分
You have domestic competition has happened in China
中国已经出现了本土竞争
Huawei and others from a chip perspective to
比如华为和在芯片领域的其他公司
theyll narrow that gap But I continue to view
他们将缩小与英伟达的差距 但我仍然认为
that Nvidia is years ahead Anyone else in the market
英伟达领先市场其他任何公司数年
And I think thats why when it comes to China big tech
因此我认为 这就是为什么中国的科技巨头
Alibaba Baidu Tencent others like theyre gonna want
如阿里巴巴 百度 腾讯等
Nvidia chips for now And this is gonna be
目前仍然想要获得英伟达的芯片
pure competition as it plays out And I view that
而这将演变成一场纯粹的竞争
as a very positive thing that happens across the world
我认为这对全球来说都是一件非常积极的事情
because look the models are gonna get cheaper
因为你看 模型将会变得更便宜
whether its DeepSeek whether its models in the US
无论是中国的DeepSeek 还是美国的大语言模型
from an LLM perspective the values in the data
这其中数据的价值
it speaks to why were so bullish And in Is like
恰恰说明了我们为何如此乐观
Palantir MongoDB Snowflake It speaks wild like
这方面的例子 比如Palantir、MongoDB、Snowflake 它们就非常能说明问题
you know our top China plays been Alibaba you know
我们看好的中国公司首选是阿里巴巴
because of you know where I see them playing
因为 根据我对他们布局的看法
I think Baidu and Tencent are also gonna be
我认为百度和腾讯也将在
huge players in terms of you know where this market plays out
这个市场的发展中成为重要参与者
But were in year three of a 10 year build out
但我们正处在一个十年建设期的第三年
the AI revolution thats gonna be built out across
这场AI革命将不仅在企业领域
not just enterprise but also across the consumer environment
也会在消费环境中全面展开建设
Dan Ives 05:29
I mean like when I think about the future
我的意思是 当我思考未来
autonomous robotics physical AI its why I believe
自主机器人 物理AI 这就是为什么我相信
you know Tesla allowing the video applied
特斯拉允许将视频应用
to the best physical AI plays in the world
于世界上最好的物理AI项目
But within 20% of cars are gonna be autonomous by 2030
但到2030年 20%的汽车将实现自动驾驶
within one of every 10 to 15 households is gonna have
每10到15个家庭中就有一个将拥有
a human like robot You only look out next five six years
一个人形机器人 你只需展望未来五六年
Thats what AI is Ottoman you gonna mean
那就是AI的未来图景 而AI的意义
its not just about ChatGPT
绝不仅仅是关于ChatGPT
Dan Ives 06:06
And I think this is something where less than 3%
我认为 在美国只有不到3%的公司
of companies in the US have gone down the AI path
真正走上了AI道路
You know you take out China and Asia its basically minimal
如果除去中国和亚洲 这个比例基本上微乎其微
call what less than 1% the amount of companies
可以说 不到1%的公司
have gone down the AI path Middle East just starting
走上了AI道路 而中东刚刚开始
sovereigns just start I mean this arms race is just
主权基金刚刚起步 我的意思是 这场军备竞赛
starting to play out today Theres look theres more
今天才刚刚开始 目前为止今天世界上
data centers under construction today inactive
在建的数据中心数量
data centers in the world
甚至超过了已投入运营的数据中心
4、并非泡沫：与1996年而非1999年对比
Dan Ives 06:37
And you know thats why I think it took an exciting time
而且 这就是为什么我认为
in terms of whats really a true fourth industrial
这是一个激动人心的时刻
revolution playing out You know we try I spend so much
因为一场真正的第四次工业革命正在上演
of my time trying to pick the stocks that will outperform
我们尝试 我花费大量时间试图挑选
in this market But the reality is that were gonna go
在这个市场中表现优异的股票 但现实是
through other white knuckle parrots DeepSeek tariff issues
我们将经历其他惊险时刻 DeepSeek关税问题
You know different worries
还有各种担忧
about in you know Nvidia on any given day
比如随时可能影响英伟达的消息
OpenAI too big to fail circular financing
OpenAI“大而不能倒”的风险 循环融资问题
But I dont view the like to me this is a tackle market
但我不这么看 对我来说 这是一个
that goes on at least another two years And I think
至少还会持续两年的市场 并且我认为
were gonna be talking about tech stocks up another 25%
我们明年将会讨论科技股再上涨25%
next year And we believe this goes on through 2027 at least
我们相信这至少会持续到2027年
I view this much more as in 1996 moment
我视这更像是1996年的时刻
then in 1999 2000 bubble moment
而非1999年、2000年的泡沫时刻
I mean the biggest private companies in the world
我意思是 看看世界上最大的私营公司
soon they'll be public Anthropic SpaceX
可能很快就要上市了 比如Anthropic、SpaceX
OpenAI XAI and you get and you go out So go out of place
OpenAI、xAI 等等 还有
in China as well You were not in a bubble
中国的公司也一样 你们并不在泡沫中
And I think its very easy for the Bears to talk about a bubble
我认为熊市论者很容易空谈泡沫
Dan Ives 07:57
But just for some comparison like in the tech
但仅仅做一些比较 比如在科技领域
go back to late 90s like the average tech company
回到90年代末 那时平均科技公司
is training at 30 times revenue Today the average tech
是按30倍营收估值 今天平均科技公司
Im gonna trading 27 times earnings You go back then startup
是按27倍盈利估值 回想当时初创公司
Series A Series B Series C funding Powerpoint
A轮、B轮、C轮融资 靠的是PPT
which is really the sort of the use case today
这基本上就是今天的情况
This is being run by big tech trillion dollars
而现在 这由大型科技公司主导
in the balance sheet generating 3 to 400 billion a year
它们资产负债表上有万亿美元 每年产生
a free cash flow Plus its real use cases that are playing out
3到4千亿美元自由现金流 加上正在企业
across the enterprise across the consumer
和消费者领域上演的真实应用案例
Dan Ives 08:33
And that to me is what the AI revolutions about
这对我来说就是AI革命的意义
I think the innovation thats happening in China specifically
我认为中国正在发生的创新
around robotics round autonomous around mobility its stunning
特别是在机器人、自动驾驶、出行领域 令人惊叹
Its eye popping And I think thats something thats
令人瞩目 我认为这将继续下去
just gonna continue its gonna accelerate But it also speaks
并且加速 但这同样说明了
to my view US China trade tensions Thats gonna cool
我的观点 中美贸易紧张局势将降温
And I think thats a very good thing for the AI revolution
我认为这对AI革命是非常好的事情
cuz I dont wanna see a decoupled sort of emy US and China
因为我不想看到中美某种形式的脱钩
I think the way that this revolution is gonna play out
我认为这场革命的发展方式
youre gonna have more and more cross pollination
将是越来越多的交融
between US and China
在中美之间
There will be security issues on both sides that
双方都会关注安全问题
theyll focus on But I actually view
但相反我实际上认为
both countries working closer together right In the opposite
两国将更紧密地合作 对吧
because US needs China Chinese US net
因为美国需要中国 中国需要美国
Dan Ives 09:35
And thats something that I you know reiterate across the board
这是我 我反复强调的一点
is why I believe you know Nvidia and the others are gonna
这就是为什么我相信 英伟达和其他公司
follow the path of apple and Tesla I mean a big part
将追随苹果和特斯拉的道路 我意思是
of the success at apple and Tesla its embracing Beijing
苹果和特斯拉成功的一大关键是拥抱北京
its embracing Shanghai its embracing China as a market
拥抱上海 拥抱中国作为一个市场
not just as a supplier but from a demand perspective
不仅仅是作为供应商 更是从需求角度
selling into Consumer shown in the enterprises
向企业和消费者销售
And I think you know I think where were going you see Indian
而且我认为 在我们前进的方向上
some other markets where theres a lot of opportunities
你看到印度等其他市场有很多机会
But the reality is this is really US and China thats run
但现实是 确实是美国和中国在引领
in this AI revolution And what I see from companies look
这场AI革命 而我从公司层面看到的是一看
60% to 70% of data than average Global 2000 company has
全球2000强公司所拥有的数据中
theyve never been able to access before So is this all plays out
有60%到70%是他们以前从未能访问的 因此随着这一切展开
the use cases thats gonna happen across pharmaceutical
将在制药 生物技术 政府
biotech government retail I think youre gonna be stunning
零售等领域发生的应用案例 我认为将会是惊人的
and it speaks to my view like why were so bullish on tech
而这恰恰说明了我的观点 即我们为何如此看好科技
I was so bullish in the AI revolution And you know also
我如此看好AI革命 而且你知道
extremely bullish in terms of everything thats happened
我对正在发生的一切也极为看好
thats just in the US boards happen in China Because I think
美国发生的 同样在中国发生 因为我认为
the innovation that happening there is really going to
那里正在发生的创新 将真正
and then sort of dictate strategically by the areas
从战略上决定我们未来
that were gonna be going in the world both from
在全球范围内要进入的领域
a consumer enterprise perspective
这既包括消费者层面 也包括企业层面
二、Part Two 投资框架与衍生机遇
1、投资载体：聚焦30个赢家的AI 30 ETF
Dan Ives 16:45
Okay So you know obviously weve talked about like
好的 那么 显然我们已经多次谈论过
our thesis a lot in terms of AI revolution but I think
我们在AI革命方面的核心观点 但我认为
its really important to talk about you know how I sort of see
真正重要的是来谈谈 我是如何看待
the second or fourth derivatives playing out both on the
第二乃至第四层衍生效应 如何在企业端
enterprise was on the consumer side but we have our ETF
和消费者端同时展开的 但我们有自己的AI30 ETF
the IVES ETF So in New York Stock Exchange look
即IVES ETF（代码IVES） 在纽约证券交易所
in the big thing that we talk about are the 30 winners
我们谈论的一大重点就是那30个赢家
Like who are the 30 winners in AI that are ultimately gonna
比如最终将受益的AI领域30个赢家是谁
you know benefit and you could look up DTR for theyll show
你可以查阅DTR 他们会给你看名单
you the list you know in terms of the Alpha conference
相关的名单 在Alpha峰会上（会公布）
But a big part of this is its not just about Nvidia
但很重要的一点是 这不仅关乎英伟达
Its not just about Microsoft its about the derivative
也不仅仅关乎微软 而是关乎
beneficiaries that are playing out across the board
正在全面展开的衍生受益者
You know the categories that we talk about are chips
我们谈论的类别包括芯片
software cyber security you know autonomous robotics
软件 网络安全 自主机器人
power energy as well as infrastructure
电力 能源 以及基础设施
2、消费端引爆点：苹果与24亿iOS设备
Dan Ives 17:51
Cuz its my view today we havent even seen
因为在我看来 今天我们甚至还没有看到
the consumer AI revolution I I its only really enterprise
消费者AI革命 它目前真的只是企业级
but the consumer AI revolution are they allowed that
但消费者AI革命 准确来说
really is gonna start with apple Yeah I think when you
真正将由苹果开启 是的 我认为当你
think about apple and ultimately them partnering with Google Gemini
想到苹果 以及他们最终与谷歌Gemini的合作
you know which is what we see happen early next year
这正是我们预计明年初会发生的事
2.4 billion iOS devices 1.5 billion iPhones
届时将触及24亿台iOS设备 15亿部iPhone
I mean the consumer AI revolution ultimately is gonna
我的意思是 消费者AI革命最终将
go through Cupertino And I think as you start to see this
由苹果引领 我认为随着你开始看到
all play out across meta across Google across apple
这一切在Meta、谷歌、苹果
across what I see is names like Roblox Shopify And
以及我所看到的如Roblox、Shopify等公司展开
you know I think when it comes to China some of the stuff
而且你知道 我认为当谈到中国时
were gonna see when it comes to Baidu Alibaba
我们将会看到百度、阿里巴巴等公司的情况
because this revolution the use case phase is just starting
因为这场革命的应用案例阶段才刚刚开始
I mean Palantir is really kind of in front and center
就以Palantir为例 它确实处于前沿和中心位置
but use cases are just starting to play out across the board
但各种应用案例其实才刚刚开始全面铺开
You can name like MongoDB Snowflake is good examples
像MongoDB、Snowflake这些都是很好的例子
Dan Ives 19:03
Companies as they build the infrastructure the saw
公司在建设基础设施的同时
I think 2026 is really gonna be defined by the use cases
我认为2026年真正将由
in software I think thats really gonna be sort of
软件领域的应用案例来定义 我认为这将成为
front and center you know as companies now go down regards
前沿和中心 随着各公司现在开始
whether its pharmaceutical energy medical devices
沿着这条路径前进 无论是制药 能源 医疗设备
government focus on the use case of this And I think
还是政府部门 都在聚焦于AI应用案例 我认为
investors are still underestimating the scale and scope
投资者仍然低估了其
in terms of what this is all gonna look like you know
未来的整体规模和范围
from a use case perspective I think on the consumer side
从应用案例的角度来看 我认为在消费者端
look all the capex mean take a step back
看所有这些资本支出 我的意思是退一步讲
3、核心矛盾：英伟达芯片12:1的供需失衡
Dan Ives 19:46
Going into 2025 Investors thought 230 billion
进入2025年时 投资者认为2300亿美元
was gonna be big tech cat backs Instead its probably me
将是大型科技公司的资本支出 但实际可能
380 billion going into next year initial Surely I think
进入明年的初始资本支出就达到3800亿 当然我认为
straight as at 4500 4600 billion its probably gonna be
可能会直接到4500 4600亿美元 并且很可能
north to 500 billion
可能会超过5000亿
Dan Ives 20:06
We are in a capex super cycle thats playing out
我们正处于一个资本支出超级周期之中
across the board And I think thats so important
它正在全面展开 我认为这对于理解
in terms of understanding like where the hyperscalers play
超大规模云服务商的布局至关重要
Thoes who in chips you know what we saw with Google and TPU
在芯片领域 我们看到了谷歌自研TPU
I think thats just the start of Youre gona
我认为这仅仅是个开始 你会看到
Dan Ives 20:25
Right now demand the supply for Nvidia chips is 12 to 1
目前英伟达芯片的供需比是12比1
Based on all of our work theres not enough
根据我们所有的研究 根本没有足够的
Nvidia chips to go around for these use cases
英伟达芯片来满足这些应用案例的需求
Thats gonna be hugely beneficial
这将是巨大的利好
Dan Ives 20:41
Huawei AMD Broadcom I mean I could argue Micron
对于华为 AMD 博通 我意思是我还可以提美光
like when you start theme at sponging the memory pliers
比如当你开始考虑内存厂商时
you would think of SK Hynix next You know there are so many
你接下来会想到SK海力士 还有很多
other memory players that we see playing out across the board
其他内存厂商也参与其中 我们正在全面看到
thats the derivative beneficiaries and its not just about Nvidia
那就是衍生受益者 而这不仅仅是英伟达
And I think thats thats important thing that we talk about
我认为这是我们讨论的一个重要方面
Its about the derivative beneficiaries And then you think
就是关于这些衍生受益者 然后你再想想
about like the Neoclouds CoreWeave Nebius you know
像Neoclouds CoreWeave Nebius这些公司
those are gonna be such important players in terms of
它们将成为非常重要的参与者
as a stack in the AI infrastructure And then theres the power
作为AI基础设施堆栈的一部分 然后是电力
like how do you hows the power gonna work I think nuclear
比如你怎么 电力将如何运作 我认为核电
is gonna continue be the biggest play You need to buy nuclear
将继续是最大的机会 你需要购买
but I think you know you go about SMRs nuclear fusion
但我想你也知道 小型模块化反应堆和核聚变
technology I think this could mean an arms race that plays out
这些技术 我认为这可能意味着
across US and China
在中美之间展开的军备竞赛
4、未来瓶颈与机遇：电力与基础设施
Dan Ives 21:38
Look 3% of companies have gone down the AI path
现在只有3%的公司走上了AI道路
When you get 20% you dont have enough power
当这一数字达到20%时 电力就会不足
especially what we see relative in the US And I think
尤其根据我们在美国看到的情况 我认为
infrastructure and power are gonna be huge investment plays
基础设施和电力将是巨大的投资机会
but also technology plays
也是技术机会
Dan Ives 21:55
I think from an investing perspective you know that
我认为从投资角度
theres so many white knuckle moments that weve seen
我们在这场交易中看到了
in this trade over the last two three years and well have
过去两三年里很多惊险时刻
more in 2026 But I think that just creates the opportunitites
2026年还会有更多 但我想这恰恰创造了
to ensure the winners and who you wanna own rather than
机会去确保赢家和你想要持有的公司
you know viewing is the time to hit the elevator
而不是认为现在是该退场的时候
I think many times for me cover and tech go back 25 years
对我来说 研究科技股25年 有很多次
There are moments where these wide knuck moments where
曾令人紧张的惊险时刻
you feel like to trade over everyones head for the elevator
你会感觉市场估值已高得离谱 是时候该离场了
We have 3 to 4 trillions being spent in AI
但现在 正有3到4万亿美元投入AI领域
Dan Ives 22:36
We are so early days relative to a view of autonomous robotics
相较于我们构想的自主机器人未来 我们还在非常早期
the AI infrastructure is gonna be built up across the enterprise
目前AI基础设施在企业端的建设
The consumer AI revolution has even started today
甚至消费者AI革命今天都尚未真正开始
I mean today were still at the model stage
我的意思是今天我们还停留在模型阶段
I mean my view is that youre gonna have an AI app store
我的看法是 未来在苹果上将会出现一个AI应用商店
on apple Youre gonna have especially within China you know
你将拥有 特别是中国
when you think about like the super rap concept and what
当你想到超级应用的概念 以及
you see playing out youre gonna have almost a whole
以及你看到的趋势 几乎将会诞生
another category for AI technology for the consumer
一整个全新的面向消费者的AI技术类别
And I think its being underestimated the scale and scoop
而且我认为这场AI革命的规模和范围
of this AI revolution thats being played out You know
被严重低估了 要知道
but from an infrastructure perspective as well as it starts
无论是从基础设施的角度 还是从它开始
hit the consumer and the rest of the enterprise
触及消费者和企业其他部门之时
And the amount of private companies that are gonna benefit
将受益的私营公司数量
the amount of capital thats gonna go out after this
以及之后将涌入的资金规模
Dan Ives 23:32
But I dont but just to keep reiterating its not a bubble
但我必须再次强调 这不是泡沫
Its the early days Its year three of a 10 year build out
这是早期阶段 是一个十年建设期的第三年
that right now is basically US and China When you start
目前主要是美国和中国 当你开始
seeing other countries getting involved thats gonna spread out
看到其他国家参与进来 它会向全球扩散
around the world Look at Europe is when it comes to AI
看看世界 欧洲在AI方面
theyre nowhere right Look at Middle East theyre just starting
他们几乎毫无进展 看看中东 他们刚刚起步
Look at the governments just starting And I think this arms race
看看各国政府也才开始 我认为这场军备竞赛
plays out its such an exciting time from an investment perspective
的发展 从投资角度来看是激动人心的时刻
Dan Ives 24:03
But I think the biggest opportunity is trying to find
但我认为最大的机会在于寻找
the second third fourth derivatives across the AI revolution
AI革命中的第二 第三 第四层衍生效应
I think that to me is where the biggest alpha is gonna be
我认为对我来说 最大的alpha收益就在于此
And thats looking thats what we do with our AI 30
而这正是我们通过AI30 ETF所做的
in our ETF what we talk about four times a year we change it
在我们的ETF中 我们每年讨论四次并调整成分
cuz there could be new winners new losers in terms of
因为可能会有新的赢家和输家
whos gonna benefit I think But also I think its important
就谁将受益而言 但我认为同样重要的是
just cuz a company says AI 30 times in a conference call
不能仅因一家公司在电话会提30次AI
where they put it 30 times in a Powerpoint doesnt make them
或在PPT里放30次 就认定它是AI标的
an AI play I think we are trying to separate the winners
我认为我们需要区分赢家
from the losers Who are the pretenders who are the real ones
和输家 哪些是滥竽充数 哪些是真正玩家
And thats gonna play out across 2026 Thanks
而这将在2026年见分晓 谢谢
三、Part Three:AI货币化、风险与中国机遇
1、2026定义：货币化之年与真假AI公司试金石
Dan Ives 27:05
Can So I think look I think 2026 is gonna be
可以 我认为 听着 我认为2026年将是
a monetization year for AI Look and again I dont view it
AI的货币化之年 我再强调 我不认同
I almost get offended when people call it hype
当人们称之为炒作时 我几乎感到被冒犯
Like if demand to supply for Nvidia chips was less than 1 to 1
如果英伟达芯片的供需比小于1比1
maybe hype but its 12 to 1 Like were just starting
那可能是炒作 但现在是12比1 我们才刚刚开始
this investment cycle and its a capex super cycle
这个投资周期 这是一个资本支出超级周期
Dan Ives 27:33
But I do believe that monetization is gonna be key in 2026
但我确实相信货币化将是2026年的关键
I think thats just gonna separate the winners and losers
我认为这将区分赢家和输家
I think investors patience Investors have been patient
我认为投资者是有耐心的 他们一直很有耐心
They dont wanna see their companies be on the outside looking in
他们不希望自己的公司在
when it comes to AI arms race but I do think
这场AI军备竞赛中掉队 但我确实认为
2026 is gonna be really the year of monetization
2026年将真正成为货币化之年
that plays out across AI You know it started as a 1995 moment
在整个AI领域展开 它始于一个“1995时刻”
Its now a 1996 moment But I dont view this as a 1999
现在是一个“1996时刻” 但我不认为这是1999年
2000 bubble moment
2000年的泡沫时刻
Dan Ives 28:09
I think the monetization now is just gonna start
我认为货币化现在才刚刚开始
to play out across enterprise and on the consumer
在企业端和消费者端展开
I do think on the capex super cycle look youre building out
我确实认为 在这个资本支出超级周期中
Dubai from the sand 20 years ago Its Vegas in the 1950s
就像20年前在沙漠中建迪拜 像1950年代建拉斯维加斯
where the desert I mean thats where were in terms of
当时还是沙漠 我的意思是 在基础设施建设方面
the infrastructure being built out But the winners will emerge
我们就处在这个阶段 但赢家会出现
and the ones that dont execute theyll fall by the wayside
而那些执行不力的将被淘汰
And I think thats gonna step up in 2026
我认为这在2026年将更加明显
Dan Ives 28:43
I think 2026 is gonna be much more of a stock pickers market
我认为2026年将更像是一个选股者的市场
They may be just owning the trend of this after
他们可能只是跟随这个趋势
And now I continue to view the biggest opportunity is gonna be
而我仍然认为最大的机会将是
the second third fourth derivatives across software across chips
软件 芯片 网络安全 基础设施等领域的
across cyber security across infrastructure I think that continues
第二 第三 第四层衍生效应 我认为这将继续
to be the biggest beneficiaries
成为最大的受益者
Dan Ives 29:09
And to you know investors once they are losing patience
而且 投资者一旦开始失去耐心
I think investors wanna see monetization And I think
我认为投资者希望看到货币化 我认为
weve started to see that when names like Palantir
我们已经开始看到 当像Palantir
and others by that really come to the forefront in 2026
等公司真正在2026年走到前沿时
2、最大风险？地缘政治紧张或趋缓
Dan Ives 30:08
Look US needs China China needs US I think geopolitical tensions
听着 美国需要中国 中国需要美国 我认为地缘政治紧张
have been front and center And I think especially go back to April
一直是核心问题 尤其是回想四月
and everything we saw between DC and Beijing
我们在华盛顿和北京之间看到的一切
The reality is like the black swan events or the nervousness
现实是 黑天鹅事件或市场担忧
I see more of a cooling of tensions geopolitical between
我更多地看到中美之间地缘政治紧张局势
US and China Cuz the reality is that I think both countries
的降温 因为现实是 我认为两国
both governments have a recognition of needing each other
两国政府都认识到彼此需要
And guess what when you look at the rest of the world
而且你猜怎么着 当你看看世界其他地区
this is US and China running away with the AI revolution
这是美国和中国在AI革命中遥遥领先
versus every other country And I think you know in terms of
而其他国家望尘莫及 我认为
worries about
就担忧而言
Dan Ives 30:54
Policy issues I think this the Nvidia not being able to sell
政策问题 我认为 英伟达无法向中国销售
into China is really been front and center And I think
一直是焦点 而且我认为
the US government coming around on this is very important because
美国政府在这个问题上的转变非常重要 因为
in the future I see maybe even like restricted or blocked chips
未来我甚至看到 也许像芯片限制或禁运
could on the other side like could BYD sell cars in the US
可能另一方面 比如比亚迪能在美国卖车吗
Could Nio sell cars in the US Theyre obviously going all after
蔚来能在美国卖车吗 他们显然正全力
Europe and Australia But Im just saying like I see
进军欧洲和澳大利亚 但我是说 就像我看到
in the future theres gonna be security issues national security
未来将会有安全问题 国家安全问题
and both sides I see much more of a cross-pollination
而双方 我认为中美之间
between US and China actually working more closer together
实际上会有更多的交融合作 更紧密地协作
than the opposite And I think thats very important because
而非对立 我认为这非常重要 因为
I dont think we see the heights of the AI revolution unless
我认为我们将无法见证AI革命的真正高潮
we have this cross-pollination that's going on But there are
除非我们保持这种跨领域的充分交流与合作
and there are gonna be other phases like look you need
当然接下来还会有其他阶段 比如说你需要有
cyber security for companies to put their data into
网络安全 公司才能放心将数据投入到
all these use cases You know as my on a public company side
所有这些应用场景中 就我所在的上市公司方面而言
Im chairman of ORBS on NASDAQ And a big thing we focus on
我是纳斯达克上市公司ORBS的董事长 我们关注的一大重点是
human-proof authentication because I think with bots and
真人身份验证 因为我认为随着机器人和
a lot of fakes in the robotic world I think human proof
机器人领域大量仿冒品的出现 我认为真人身份验证
identification is gonna be more and more important in terms of
将变得越来越重要
where that goes But its an exciting time in terms of where we are
就其发展而言 但就我们所处的位置而言 这是一个激动人心的时刻
3、中国AI最诱人机会：机器人领域引领全球
Dan Ives 32:50
Look I mean our favorite plays in the China AI stack
我意思是我们在中国AI生态中最看好的
have been Alibaba and Baidu I think Tencent as well
一直是阿里巴巴和百度 我认为腾讯也是
from a big China perspective in terms of the tech stack
从中国大型科技公司的角度看 就技术堆栈而言
I think the biggest investment opportunities in China
我认为中国最大的投资机会
is gonna be in robotics I mean to me humanoid robotics
将是机器人领域 我意思是 对我来说 人形机器人
is where they are clearly in the lead There's a lot of companies
是他们明显领先的领域 有很多公司
on the private side and I think on public side as well
在私营方面 我认为在上市公司方面也是如此
that are really starting to emerge And I would say that
正真正开始涌现 我会说
when it comes to China AI like youre now seeing
当谈到中国AI时 你现在看到
domestic competition increase across the board and thats
本土竞争全面加剧
a great thing Youre gonna have Nvidia and others selling
这是件好事 英伟达和其他公司将向中国销售
into China But I think the innovation curve that is going on
但我认为中国正在发生的创新曲线
in China is really impressive And I see this as something
确实令人印象深刻 我将此视为
thats gonna be going on for the next decade but its really
将在未来十年持续的事情 但这真的将是
gonna be about physical AI Its gonna be about applications
关于物理AI 它将关乎面向消费者的应用
for the consumer as well as enterprise software building out
以及企业级软件的进一步构建
further and further And I think you can see why the big tech
我认为你可以看到为什么
companies in China trying to expand their tentacles
中国的大型科技公司试图扩展他们的触角
not just on the consumer side but on the enterprise side
不仅在消费者方面 也在企业方面
And I think the robotics is gonna be huge area that we are
我认为机器人将是我们将要看到的
gonna see in the sort of land grab
某种“AI圈地运动”中的一个巨大领域
结束语
Dan Ives
So you know you know I so Id also say I can closing
所以 所以我还要说 在我结束前
you know you could reach me you know on social media
你可以通过社交媒体联系我
and LinkedIn Twitter dives tech And you know I just
LinkedIn、Twitter @DivesTech
look forward to the next Alpha Summit to being there
我非常期待下一次Alpha峰会
in person rather than you know over Zoom here from New York
能够亲自到场 而不是像现在这样从纽约通过视频远程参与
And its an exciting time for all of us Were living
这对我们所有人来说都是激动人心的时刻
in a fourth industrial revolution and it just makes it
我们正处在第四次工业革命中
that much exciting where were
这让我们所处的位置更加令人兴奋
And I think the tech bull market we see
我认为我们正处于科技牛市之中
And Thank you
非常感谢
风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。银河配资提示：文章来自网络，不代表本站观点。
